Construction Industry Insights (Winter 2026)

Construction Industry Insights (Winter 2026)

This insight focuses on a number of topics that pertain to the construction industry as a whole, including top industry trends, tariff-related impacts on contractor confidence, the significant decline in construction jobs, and the impact of immigration policy on the labor force. It also includes a brief summary of trends in used equipment values.

This document focuses on several topics that pertain to the construction industry, including industry trends set to dominate in 2026, the rise in construction price cuts, the decline in job openings, the continuing increase in construction costs, and megaprojects reshaping the U.S. landscape.  It also includes a summary of trends in used equipment values.

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5 Construction Trends Set to Dominate in 2026: The construction industry stands on the brink of its most significant transformation in decades.  Global construction output is forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2026, underscoring the momentum for modernization.  This growth coincides with the commercial viability of advanced technologies that are set to reshape how the industry plans, builds and manages projects.  Urban areas that leverage technology and data to enhance the quality of life for residents (i.e. smart cities) are driving the integration between construction, infrastructure and urban innovation.

Industry experts agree that the following 5 construction trends are set to dominate 2026:

1. Modular and Prefabricated Construction – Factory-built components already comprise 70% of new multifamily housing projects.  According to Mordor Intelligence, the modular construction market is expected to grow from $104 billion in 2024 to $140.8 billion by 2029.  These methods cut project timelines by up to 60%, minimize waste and ensure higher quality through controlled factory conditions. For construction hiring managers, this shift means prioritizing professionals with expertise in logistics, factory integration and modular assembly.

2. AI-Powered Tools and Predictive Analytics – Artificial intelligence is now embedded across project lifecycles.  From risk prediction to dynamic scheduling, AI reduces delays by as much as 60%.  Predictive maintenance powered by machine learning prevents 80% of equipment breakdowns, according to Komatsu, while AI-driven cost estimation achieves 95% accuracy, per a recent report by McKinsey.  These tools are helping firms win more bids, reduce inefficiencies and improve worker safety through real-time monitoring.

3. 3D Printing at Commercial Scale – Construction 3D printing is scaling rapidly, with forecasts showing an extraordinary compound annual growth rate of more than 100% between 2025 and 2030, says Allied Market Research (AMR).  Entire multi-story buildings can now be printed in under 48 hours, while new formulations enable 90% faster print speeds.  According to AMR, these advances dramatically cut timelines, reduce material waste and allow designs previously impossible with traditional methods.

4. Robotics and Autonomous Equipment – Robotic systems are addressing labor shortages and improving productivity.  Robotic bricklayers can complete masonry up to 400% faster than human crews, according to Dusty Robotics, while drones provide 61% greater measurement accuracy and enhance safety oversight.  The construction robotics market is projected to reach $3.6 billion by 2030 signaling mainstream adoption across large and small projects alike.

5. Sustainable and Carbon-Negative Materials – Bio-based concrete alternatives are gaining regulatory approval and are expected to capture 15% of the commercial concrete market by 2026, according to American Lime Technology.  Self-healing materials extend building lifespans by decades, while recycled plastic lumber now replaces wood in 40% of framing applications.

At the same time, the workforce crisis is likely to persist.  According to the Bureau of Labor, a shortage of 430,000 workers is projected by 2026, with 94% of U.S. firms already reporting difficulty filling positions.  This shortage costs the industry an estimated $10.8 billion annually in project delays.  To address this problem, forward-thinking firms are employing strategies like competitive construction salaries, workforce diversity initiatives and digital recruitment campaigns. Organizations that embrace these methods will be better positioned to attract top talent in a fiercely competitive labor market.

New Construction Price Cuts on the Rise: The number of homebuilders offering price cuts on newly built homes reached a new five-year high in November, as builders struggle with economic uncertainty.  According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 41% of builders reported cutting prices, a record high in the post-Covid period. The average price reduction was 6%, the same rate as October.  In addition, during September, October and November 65% of builders reported using other sales incentives such as rate buydowns.

Overall builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained low with a Wells Fargo Housing Market Index of 38 in November, up 1 point from the prior month.  Any reading below 50 reflects negative sentiment about the market.  Homebuilders say that despite recent easing in mortgage rates, they are grappling with weak demand stemming from buyer uncertainty, intensified by the whirlwind economic impact of tariffs, inflation, and the recent government shutdown.

“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” says NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes.  “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”  Uncertainty has also been elevated by the lack of federal economic data since the government shutdown began October 1.  Following the passage of a temporary spending bill on November 12 that reopened the government, those reports have now resumed.

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.  Single-family housing starts, which had been expected to rise slightly in 2025, are now estimated to come in below last year’s figure of 1 million.  Dietz says that NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in single-family starts in 2026 as builders continue to report marginally positive expectations about future sales conditions.

Construction Job Openings Near 10-Year Low: According to a September 30 report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of open construction jobs dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade, indicating contractors have reduced interest in hiring new positions in the near future.  The construction industry had 188,000 open jobs on the last day of September, representing a decrease of about 38% both month-to-month and year-over-year.  In August, 2.2% of all construction jobs were unfilled, marking the lowest number of open positions in almost ten years and a major dip from 3.5% the month prior.

Based on spending decreases and the relatively low number of layoffs and discharges, economists believe the BLS report shows the industry is contracting, though the effects may be confined to the short term.  The drop in open jobs may seem like whiplash among continued reports that construction suffers from a dire need for workers, but the industry faces multiple headwinds that can result in workers being furloughed.

“While this data series tends to be volatile on a month-to-month basis, the precipitous decline in job openings aligns with other indicators like construction spending and employment, both of which have fallen in recent months,” said Anirban Basu, Chief Economist for Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC).  Additionally, the BLS does not differentiate between commercial and residential construction.

Construction’s rough month sticks out against the broader employment data landscape.  According to the BLS, the number and rate of job openings across all industries remained unchanged in August, and the report called out construction as the first industry with a major decrease in available positions.

Construction Costs Climb for Fifth Straight Month: According to ABC, construction input prices ticked up 0.2% in September, driven largely by higher costs for key materials such as iron and steel.  On a year-over-year basis, input costs are up 3.5% for overall construction and 3.8% for nonresidential work.  Since April, materials prices have risen at a 3.2% annualized rate.  Although that is faster than ideal, it is nowhere near the escalation that occurred in 2021 and 2022.

“Persistent input-price pressure, even when the increases are modest, creates a stop and go rhythm in procurement and production instead of a steady flow contractors and suppliers need,” said Macrina Wilkins, senior research analyst at Associated General Contractors of America.  “These month-to-month swings make it harder for firms to plan confidently and protect already thin-margins.”  Several key materials have posted significant year-over-year increases.  Steel mill products jumped 12.4% over the past 12 months, while switchgear, switchboard and industrial controls equipment rose 10.3%.  Copper wire and cable prices also jumped, rising 9.1% over the past year.

“Unfortunately, it’s unclear how higher tariffs on key materials like iron, steel, aluminum and copper will affect prices over the next several months, and it’s noteworthy that commodities related to those materials have exhibited significant year-over-year price increases,” said Anirban Basu, Chief Economist for ABC.  “Despite the prospect of ongoing materials price escalation, contractors remain cautiously upbeat about their profit margins and sales over the next six months.”  On that positive note, energy categories were one of the few areas to offer relief in September.  Natural gas and unprocessed energy materials prices ticked down 8.7% and 3%, respectively, and crude petroleum prices dropped 1.7%.  Nevertheless, contractors remain caught between higher materials costs and softer bid prices.  Contractors can manage modest cost increases, but they need a predictable environment to keep projects moving.  Greater clarity on tariff policy and progress on outstanding trade issues would help stabilize materials markets and give firms more confidence to plan for the work ahead.

9 Megaprojects Begin Construction Across the U.S.: A string of megaprojects is reshaping the U.S. construction landscape in 2025 with nine breaking ground in October.  These projects are driving overall industry growth as traditional commercial and residential work shows signs of strain.  The projects include among others new data centers, liquefied natural gas export terminals and manufacturing facilities, which not only provide jobs and economic growth, but also highlight evolving industrial priorities and ongoing labor and infrastructure challenges.

In October, U.S. construction starts rose sharply, fueled by projects such as those above valued at more than $1 billion.  These massive infrastructure projects span many years and usually involve a mix of public, private, federal and sometimes international stakeholders.  In October, they propelled total construction starts up 21% to a seasonally adjusted rate of $1.53 trillion.  Nonresidential construction led the rebound, rising 17.9%.  The most dramatic growth occurred in office and data center projects which rose 45.5% and manufacturing starts, which more than doubled with a 107.2% increase.  At the same time, retail construction saw a 15.1% uptick, while hotel and warehouse projects declined.  By contrast, residential construction declined 15.4% in October, led by a steep 38.5% drop in multifamily starts.  Over the first ten months of 2025, commercial groundbreakings have grown 13.6%, while total nonresidential starts were up 5.6%.

Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, said, “Much of the momentum we’re seeing is still concentrated in big-ticket, high-tech projects.  Outside those categories, the pace of expansion is noticeably steadier and more restrained.”  She added, “Growth in construction starts continued to be propped up by high-value megaproject activity.  Outside of these high-tech buildings, however, growth appears more moderate.  In square footage terms, for example, nonresidential and residential starts declined by 4.3% over the month and are down 5.4% year-to-date through October.

In summary, while the megaproject surge is currently propping up statistics, growth is not uniform across all industry sectors.  Data center and energy investments are likely to continue dominating expansion in the near term, but broader commercial, retail and smaller-scale institutional categories remain subdued.

Trends in Used Equipment Values

The U.S. used heavy construction equipment market (crawler excavators, dozers, wheel loaders, articulated dump trucks, and related ≥10-ton machinery) continued its softening trend through October 2025, marking roughly 12 consecutive months of declining values.

Key observations are as follows:

Auction Values – Down 1.7% month-over-month and 9.8% year-over-year.  Late-model (2020–2023) units depreciated 22–26% year-over-year, the steepest drop since 2022.

Asking/List Prices – Fell 0.8–2.5% month-over-month across major platforms.  The gap between asking prices and realized auction prices widened to 17–21%, the highest spread in four years.

Inventory Levels – Dealer and auction inventories rose 18–32% year-over-year depending on category, with wheel loaders (+32%) and mid-size crawler excavators (+24%) showing the largest surpluses.  Total days-on-market now averages 92 days, up from 61 days in October 2024.

There are four primary factors that account for depreciation in the U.S.:

  1. Elevated dealer inventories from delayed new-machine deliveries and aggressive fleet upgrades in 2023–2024
  2. High interest rates (equipment financing 8–11%) suppressing buyer appetite
  3. Post-election caution and seasonal slowdown heading into winter
  4. Flood of off-lease and repossessed late-model units entering the market

Most industry forecasts expect U.S. used heavy equipment values to decline an additional 4–7% through the first quarter of 2026 before stabilizing as Fed rate cuts take effect and 2026 infrastructure budgets are released.  Buyers currently enjoy the strongest negotiating position in three years, while sellers are increasingly moving volume through auctions rather than retail channels to reduce carrying costs.

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