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U.S Factory Activity Continues to Contract: The December Purchasing Manager’s Index, a measure of U. S. factory activity used by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), contracted for the fourteenth consecutive month, largely due to weaker orders. Although the index rose .7 points from the prior month to 47.4, helped by a pickup in production, readings below 50 indicate contraction. This result extends the longest stretch of shrinking activity since 2000-2001, when the dot-com bubble burst, sparking a recession.
During 2023, manufacturers were hampered by high borrowing costs and waning demand for goods that prompted some companies to rethink capital spending plans. While the ISM index still shows contraction and almost all industries shrank during December, it is holding in a range that suggests activity has stabilized, but at a weak level. Nonetheless, factory purchasing managers are more upbeat about 2024 prospects since the Federal Reserve has signaled a decline in interest rates. In the ISM’s latest semiannual economic forecast, 15 of 18 manufacturing industries project that revenue will increase, while capital expenditures are expected to rise almost 12%.
On a January 3 call with reporters, Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said “We felt that we’re going to have a good year in 2024. We’ve closed the year on a very good note.” A separate Labor Department report issued January 3 showed that U.S. job openings eased in November, fewer workers voluntarily left their positions and the number of new hires fell, adding to evidence of a slowdown in labor demand. In addition, many of the nation’s producers are beginning to benefit from cheaper commodities aided by a drop in oil prices to an almost six-month low in December. Although there are reasons to be optimistic about rising demand and the potential for capital investment to pick up in 2024, the extent to which those things come to fruition will depend in large part on how the Federal Reserve’s actions and the economy in general play out, particularly during an election year.
The AI Revolution in Manufacturing: The manufacturing industry is now leading the charge in integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI). With global AI in the manufacturing market valued at $3.2 billion in 2023 and projected to reach $20.8 billion by 2028, it’s clear that manufacturers are making substantial investments in AI to drive their evolution into the next industrial era, Industry 4.0. This movement is characterized by digitalization, innovation, and the adoption of advanced technologies which are leading to increased automation, more efficient production processes, and the creation of new products and services. Four key areas in which AI is being applied are as follows:
1. Deployment of “Cobots” – One of the most significant steps being taken to enhance operations through the application of AI is the deployment of collaborative robots, or “cobots”. Unlike traditional robots, cobots work alongside humans, enhancing safety, productivity, and efficiency. They are versatile, performing tasks from welding to packaging with AI-driven machine vision.
2. Supply Chain Management – The impact of AI also extends to supply chain management, with machine learning and Big Data analytics enabling autonomous planning. This ensures consistent supply-chain performance with minimal human oversight, even under volatile conditions. AI agents are now scheduling complex manufacturing lines, considering various parameters to maximize output while minimizing costs.
3. Predictive Maintenance – Another area in which AI is being utilized is predictive maintenance. By analyzing data from machinery and shop floor processes, AI identifies patterns to predict and prevent breakdowns. This approach improves productivity and cost efficiency and enhances equipment health. Generative AI adds value by scanning documents like maintenance logs and providing precise information for troubleshooting and maintenance activities.
4. Innovative Product Design and Quality Control – AI is revolutionizing product design by analyzing market trends, regulatory compliance changes, and customer feedback. This enables designers to innovate and ensure compliance efficiently. For instance, General Motors has used a generative design for a lighter, stronger seat bracket in its electric vehicles. AI also allows for testing and refining product designs virtually, thereby reducing development time and costs.
Latest 737 MAX Incident Creates More Headaches for Boeing: On January 5, a Boeing 737 MAX 9 had its plug door blow off in midair. The plug door panel, which covers an extra emergency exit that is only operable on planes with the maximum capacity, blew off an Alaska Airlines flight that was at 16,000 feet and climbing to cruising altitude after departing Portland, Oregon, for Ontario, California. The loss of the panel caused the depressurization of the cabin, and the plane returned safely to Portland with no serious injuries reported. This is just one of a number of setbacks the company has experienced since the 737 MAX lineup was introduced six and a half years ago. These jets were also involved in two deadly crashes shortly after their debut.
Alaska Airlines and United Airlines, the two U.S. air carriers that use the 737 MAX 9, have grounded their fleets to inspect their aircraft while the Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board carry out an investigation into the incident. The MAX 9 involved in this particular event had been restricted from long flights over water, such as to Hawaii, after Alaska reported pressurization alerts on prior flights. As a result of this latest incident, Boeing’s stock price fell more than 8% the following Monday to a one-month low. Despite concerns raised by the latest 737 MAX episode, the aircraft remains a central part of Boeing’s business going forward.
On January 8, Sheila Kahyaoglu, a senior equity research analyst at Jefferies, said that her firm is maintaining its buy rating for Boeing despite the incident and outlined the importance of the 737 MAX to Boeing. “We are sticking with our buy rating on Boeing despite the MAX incident over the weekend,” Kahyaoglu said. “The MAX is extremely important to Boeing and its free cash flow profile of $10 billion by 2025-2026.” Some analysts believe the extent of the damage to Boeing’s brand will depend on what investigators determine caused the blowout.
Machine Tool Market Trends and Forecast: The size of the U.S. machine tool market is estimated at $12.25 billion in 2024, and expected to reach $14.46 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 3.38%. The movement toward both smart machinery and Industry 4.0, will continue to be significant for machine tool manufacturers. As a result of Industry 4.0 technologies, the industry is shifting from one-centered machines to one-centered services and integrated solutions. It is anticipated that over the next few years the trend toward generating most revenues and profits from services will spread throughout the sector and pick up speed. By 2030, the majority of equipment will likely be sold as a component of packages that include both software and services.
The machine tool industry is also critical to maintaining our national security in the case of an emergency. The Department of Defense wants to ensure it can produce everything the country needs. Working more closely with the top manufacturing and R&D firms for machine tools from our overseas partners would also be advantageous for the U.S. In addition, machine tools will assist the country in acquiring the clean energy technologies needed to address the climate problem.
The U.S. manufacturing industry is currently going through a time of rapid development and transition as new technology and international standards are introduced into the market. At the same time, the sector is dealing with several challenges, including an aging workforce, declining productivity and rising labor costs, growing competition from emerging economies, and an aging manufacturing infrastructure. In response, manufacturers are looking for ways to increase productivity, lower costs, and improve the effectiveness of their supply chain networks through the use of technology. Surprisingly, even though automation is a crucial element for success in the manufacturing industry, a recent market analysis indicated that just 30% of manufacturers believe that it will be a key component of their company plan over the next five years.
U.S. Steel to be Sold: In December it was announced that U.S. Steel will be acquired by Japan-based Nippon Steel in a deal valued at $14.9 billion. The acquisition will allow Nippon Steel to expand its production in the U.S., adding to its manufacturing bases in Japan, Thailand, India and other countries. The transaction will increase Nippon Steel’s total crude steel capacity to 86 million tons a year, pushing the steelmaker closer to its goal of producing 100 million tons of steel annually. It will also make the combined entity one of the largest steel producers in the world. Nippon Steel won the deal in an auction that included major steel competitors Cleveland-Cliffs, Esmark and ArcellorMittal. Cleveland-Cliffs also made a bid to buy U.S. Steel in August for $35 per share. The company rejected the offer for being “unreasonable,” and failing to reflect the full value of U.S. Steel. Nippon Steel’s proposal is a major step up in value from Cleveland-Cliffs’ offer. The final sale, which has an equity value of $14.1 billion, is an all-cash deal at $55.00 per share, representing a 40% premium to the company’s share price when the market closed on December 15. The sale is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2024, subject to U.S. shareholder and other regulatory approvals.
U.S. Steel, which produces 22.4 million net tons of steel annually, will retain its company name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Nippon Steel will honor all of U.S. Steel’s existing union contracts with the United Steelworkers. The deal, however, has been slammed by the union, which called it “greedy” and “shortsighted.” “We remained open throughout this process to working with U.S. Steel to keep this iconic American company domestically owned and operated, but instead it chose to push aside the concerns of its dedicated workforce and sell to a foreign-owned company,” said David McCall, international president of the United Steelworkers. In November, U.S. Steel laid off 1,076 workers when it stopped production at a plant in Granite City, Illinois. The idling of the plant came amid the then-ongoing United Auto Workers strike, with automotive making up approximately 30% of U.S. Steel’s flat-rolled segment.
Manufacturing Industry Outlook
While construction spending is holding its own despite the higher borrowing costs, manufacturing continues to struggle. In 2024, manufacturers are expected to face economic uncertainty, the ongoing shortage of skilled labor, lingering and targeted supply chain disruptions, and new challenges spurred by the need for product as companies move forward to electrify and decarbonize their product portfolios. These challenges reflect the need to address technical readiness and the high initial costs of transitioning production processes, as well as new and complex supply chains for batteries and their crucial rare earth metals.
Technology will play a significant role in supporting manufacturers in taking on the above challenges. As indicated in the second article of this Industry Insight, the manufacturing industry is now taking the lead in integrating AI. With a persistent search for efficiency and focus on building resilience across the organization, many manufacturers are continuing to pursue their digital transformation objectives, even as some may be holding off on making further investments because of the challenging business environment. Companies seem to be embracing a smart factory approach and investigating the possibilities of generative AI as tools they can use to add value to their operations.
In addition to the above tools, companies are also exploring the industrial metaverse, a blending of the digital and physical world that accelerates efficiency through engineering, manufacturing and field service. While still in its early stages, the vision is for it to enable real-time collaboration, connectivity, and spatially aware context within industrial environments.