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Trucking Trends to Watch in 2025: After another challenging year for the trucking industry, carriers are cautiously optimistic that 2025 can deliver an upcycle driven by improvements in consumer demand, lower interest rates, and capacity rightsizing. Nonetheless, company leaders are also bracing for potential fallout due to new tariffs, strenuous legal and operational costs, and a potentially sluggish timeline for improvements in the market. Further insight into those areas of concern is as follows:
Uncertainties with Tariffs – Once President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term, transportation stakeholders expect to learn more about what 2025 has in store. Trump has threatened tougher tariffs for multiple countries, including 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. However, promising such measures could be a negotiating tactic, and a deal with one or more trading partners to avoid or adjust such tariffs could emerge in the near future. Some economists have suggested Trump’s plans may be more posturing than initial proposals. American Trucking Association President and CEO Chris Spear agrees. “To the degree he does it across the board, I think you’re probably going to see something more surgical, more strategic, a little more judicious than what the campaign rhetoric would suggest,” Spear said last month.
M&A Poised to Target Niche Services – The year could bring further consolidation in the trucking industry. Transportation companies may be particularly interested in enhancing their portfolios through specialized acquisitions as the market poises for a potential increase in volume. The current market dynamics of selling a company could still catch owners’ attention. A federal tax incentive that originally provided a 100% write-off for buyers of certain capital expenditures dropped from 60% in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and is slated to further drop to 20% next year. The depreciation tax shield can significantly reduce taxes in the first year and free up capital for growth.
Anticipating Market Turnaround – Although the freight industry experienced a sluggish freight environment that ebbed and flowed throughout 2024, analysts have signaled hope for improvement in 2025. ACT Research VP and Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer projects a better year for 2025 than 2024 but cautioned against unreasonable and overly optimistic expectations. “I think it’s fair to say that we’ve moved into a positive phase of the freight cycle,” he said. Researchers believe the markets appear to be starting to switch after finally hitting the bottom and could turn upward early in the second quarter.
Avery Vise is VP of Trucking for FTR Transportation Intelligence, which specializes in forecasting and data analysis in freight transportation. He believes that true pricing power probably won’t surface until the middle of the year, maybe in the late third quarter. FTR forecasts contract rates in 2025 to grow in the low single digits year over year. “We don’t expect anything really robust, certainly, for the year as a whole,” Vice said. “But by the time we get to the fourth quarter, we are expecting to see truckload contract rates being 5% or more above year-over-year levels.”
Trucking Jobs Stabilize Heading into 2025: Thousands of trucking jobs were lost in 2024, but employment stabilized during the last quarter of the year, perhaps signaling the end of an overcapacity problem that plagued the industry for more than two years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 800 trucking jobs were eliminated from the economy in December. Although this marked the sixth and final decrease of 2024, there were only two months of job losses in the trucking industry in the last five months of the year.
A wave of new truck drivers entered the market to take advantage of high rates in the wake of the pandemic. As market conditions slowly returned to pre-pandemic conditions, the record-high number of drivers remained. As a result, the overcapacity placed downward pressure on carriers’ rates. Since trucking jobs peaked in July 2022, the industry has been purging itself of excess drivers. There are 42,000 fewer truckers now than there were at that peak, with about 6,000 lost last year and 35,000 in 2023. However, only 500 truck driving jobs have disappeared since August 2024.
David Spencer, VP of Market Intelligence at Arrive Logistics, noted that stability in trucking jobs aligns with the stability that has been seen with rates over the past year. He called this “a good sign for trucking companies” and expects potential job growth in 2025 if the freight environment continues to improve. “If rates increase meaningfully as the year progresses, carriers’ focus could shift back to growth mode, leading to further job increases,” Spencer said. “That will take some time to play out, and meaningful job growth may not be realized until mid-year or later, but I believe the worst of the job losses are behind us in the current market cycle.”
Technology Making Life on the Road Easier: Life on the road as a truck driver comes with its share of challenges, from long hours to demanding conditions that test endurance and resilience. However, the trucking industry is transforming, thanks to innovative technologies designed to enhance the driver experience. Summarized below are several advancements that are reshaping the world of trucking by improving efficiency, boosting safety, and elevating comfort for drivers.
Electronic Logging Devices (ELDs) – (ELDs) are digital tools that record a driver’s hours of service (HOS) by syncing with the vehicle’s engine. These devices have revolutionized the trucking industry by ensuring improved compliance with HOS regulations, reducing the administrative burden of manual logbooks, and providing more accurate and reliable record-keeping. Additionally, ELDs offer enhanced fleet management capabilities, enabling companies to monitor vehicle performance and optimize operations more effectively.
GPS and Navigation – Advanced GPS systems offer a range of benefits that both enhance efficiency and safety on the road. With real-time traffic updates and route optimization, drivers can avoid delays and select the fastest, most efficient paths to their destinations. These systems also provide location tracking, improving safety and security by enabling real-time monitoring of trucks and cargo. Additionally, GPS technology helps drivers find truck-specific routes that avoid hazards like low bridges and weight-restricted roads. When integrated with fleet management systems, these tools further streamline operations and improve overall performance.
Advanced Driver-Assist (ADAS) Features – ADAS offers features that significantly enhance road safety. Technologies like lane departure warnings, adaptive cruise control, automatic emergency braking, and blind spot monitoring work together to create a safer driving environment. These systems reduce the risk of accidents by alerting drivers to potential hazards and intervening when necessary. Additionally, they help mitigate driver fatigue by automating certain tasks and providing continuous support.
Other Technological Advancements – A variety of other technologies are enhancing the trucking experience in meaningful ways. In-cab entertainment systems provide opportunities to unwind during rest periods, while improved communication tools, such as hands-free devices and messaging apps, ensure seamless and safe interaction on the road. In addition, health and wellness apps promote driver well-being by offering resources for fitness, nutrition, and mental health. These advancements contribute to a more comfortable and balanced lifestyle for truckers.
Technology is transforming the trucking industry, making life on the road easier, safer, and more efficient for drivers. From advanced navigation systems to driver-assist features and wellness apps, these innovations are reshaping the way truckers work and live.
Carriers’ Perspective About 2025: Truckstop is a trusted partner for carriers, brokers, and shippers, empowering the freight community through a platform of innovative solutions for the entire freight lifecycle to help increase efficiency, automate processes, and accelerate growth. It is one of the industry’s largest freight marketplaces. They recently conducted a survey of nearly 500 carriers that reveals a positive and forward-thinking outlook within the trucking industry. The results of the four areas surveyed, which are summarized below, highlight carriers’ resilience, ambition, and determination to enhance their businesses and overall quality of life.
Optimism and Career Confidence
The survey shows that 91% of carriers are confident in achieving their professional goals and nearly half expect significant personal and business improvements. Career stability is a cornerstone of their plans, as 97% intend to stay in trucking with 63% planning to stay in their current roles and 34% transitioning to new opportunities within the industry. These numbers underscore trucking as a stable and rewarding career choice. Ninety-four percent believe their professional life will improve in 2025, with 53% expecting it to be significantly better.
Fraud Prevention
Another area of concern in which carriers anticipate improvement is fraud prevention. Eighty-two percent believe industry measures will improve, and nearly one-third expect significant advancements. Within this group, 28% anticipate major gains in fraud prevention efforts.
Wellness and Personal Development
Carriers are also making significant commitments to health, wellness, and self-improvement. Over 70% plan to improve their eating habits and exercise routines in 2025, while an impressive 93% are likely to pursue additional training or certifications to advance their careers. Although work-life balance remains a challenge, 22% hope to spend more time at home, while 32% plan to spend less, likely due to their professional demands and desire to grow their income.
Strategic Investments for Business Growth
In 2025, 77% of carriers plan to make upgrades to their rigs, including performance improvements and driver comfort enhancements such as heated seats and updated sound systems. In addition to these improvements,many carriers are also interested in adding technology for route optimization and adding safety features like cameras. When it comes to financial planning, 45% are focusing on revenue growth and 38% on prioritizing savings for equipment upgrades.
California Drops Clean Fleets Mandate: On January 14, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) withdrew its request for a waiver to implement Advanced Clean Fleets, effectively killing the regulation that would require drayage operations and larger fleets to replace diesel trucks with zero-emission trucks. Although the new rules went into effect last year, CARB could not enforce them without the waiver.
With less than a week before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated and no action from President Biden’s administration, CARB decided to preemptively kill the Advanced Clean Fleets rule and other pending emission regulations that require permission from the federal government. The future of the rule hinged on Biden’s EPA to grant the waiver. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to reverse vehicle emission regulations enacted during Biden’s presidency. During his first term, Trump revoked California’s federal waiver on emissions.
CARB’s abandonment of Advanced Clean Fleets drew praise from trucking stakeholders. Todd Spencer, president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, expressed optimism over upcoming policy changes affecting truck drivers. “We welcome this update and look forward to working with the new administration on commonsense environmental policies that allow small-business truckers to remain viable and not forced out of business in the regulatory juggernaut,” Spencer said.
Trends in Used Equipment Values
According to ACT Research, Class 8 same dealer used truck retail sales volumes finished 2024 strong. In December, sales volumes surged 23% month over month, outperforming typical seasonality, which called for an increase of just 8%. Auction activity increased from November by 47%, while wholesale transactions improved by 3.7%. Steve Tam, VP of ACT Research, noted that one theory on better-than-expected sales is buyers trying to time their purchases ahead of impending value increases. While sales were up 23% month over month, they rose 24% over December 2023. Looking at pricing, used trucks sold at an average price 4% higher than in November, but 4% lower than the prior year. While auction values for used trucks and trailers were up overall in December, auction values for late-model assets continued to depreciate dramatically.
In December, used heavy-duty and semitrailer inventory declined by 0.9%, marking the fourth straight month of declines. On a year-over-year basis, inventory for these vehicles decreased by 7.2%, with the sleepers seeing the largest decline at 29.8%. Asking values decreased 0.5% month over month and 10.6% year over year, while auction values were down 2.6% and 18.5% for the same respective periods.
Sandhills Global believes that used-truck prices may have finally bottomed out as heavy-duty inventory declined in December amid loosened lending standards and broader economic improvements. While used trucks have steadily depreciated since the freight recession began in 2022, they will likely remain stable or increase on a month-over-month basis moving forward as dealers clear out older inventory and obtain a healthier mix of new and used vehicles, Sandhills Global Equipment Lease and Finance Manager Jim Ryan told Equipment Finance News.
Throughout all of 2024, Irontrax saw a slight decline in the pricing of all late-model used trucks and trailers, particularly those with higher mileage. However, the correction was not nearly as drastic as that from historic highs experienced during 2023. Late-model vehicles with low mileage are still difficult to find. With the cost of new trucks and trailers returning to somewhat normal levels, declines in value from initial purchase to values in the secondary market are narrowing. Tiers, specs, mileage/hours, and age continue to play important roles in secondary market pricing.