This document focuses on several topics that pertain to the trucking industry, including the outlook for 2026, the extent of noncompliant trucking schools, the economic impact of the 2025 plunge in freight demand, the continued weakness in Class 8 orders, and the revocation of CDLs in Washington state. It also includes a summary of trends in used equipment inventory and values.
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Trucking Industry Outlook for 2026: The trucking industry heads into 2026 with cautious stabilization but continued uncertainty, caused by weak freight fundamentals, tariff-driven cost pressures, and regulatory ambiguity. Capacity is tightening gradually as Class 8 builds decline and carrier profitability remains under strain. Demand softness and policy risks continue to temper fleet investment. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) remain disciplined, maintaining output aligned to leaner orders as the industry works through the period following 2025’s pre-tariff shipping surge.
Class 8 production slowed further through October as OEMs lowered build rates in response to weaker orders and elevated inventories, particularly in vocational categories. Fleets continue to focus on essential replacement amid higher prices tied to the 232 heavy-vehicle tariffs and uncertainty surrounding EPA 2027. Despite subdued freight volumes, early signs of balance are emerging. Capacity is contracting slowly, used truck prices are stabilizing after several months of decline, and inventories are normalizing in the tractor market. Still, freight softness is expected to persist through early 2026, with the holiday season projected to produce negative real volume growth.
For fleets, 2026 operations remain anchored in cost control, risk management, and flexibility amid ongoing macro and policy uncertainty. In the coming year we can expect 3 key trends to impact trucking and transportation:
1. Fleet Renewal and Equipment Strategy – Fleets enter 2026 with aging tractors and delayed trade cycles following a year of weak Class 8 ordering. Purchases remain almost entirely replacement-focused, with little appetite for expansion given low profitability and higher acquisition costs. The tariffs continue to increase new equipment prices materially, and insurance and financing costs remain elevated. Used truck prices have continued to soften but are showing early stabilization as production cuts take effect. Investment strategies are centered on ROI, uptime, and reliability rather than fleet growth.
2. Regulatory Shifts and Zero Emission – EPA 2027 remains the most significant regulatory uncertainty. With no updated guidance issued and the implementation date approaching, industry expectations are shifting toward a partial rollback, particularly around warranty and useful-life extensions. The lack of clarity has eliminated prebuy incentives and slowed long-term capital planning. Zero-emission truck adoption continues in targeted applications. However, when it comes to broader adoption, fleets are maintaining pilot programs but delaying major commitments until regulatory pathways become clearer.
3. Capacity Rebalancing and Freight Alignment – Freight markets are showing early but tentative signs of rebalancing. Class 8 builds have been cut meaningfully from early 2025 levels, and fleet capacity is beginning to contract as profitability remains near recessionary lows. Smaller carriers continue to face severe margin pressure and some consolidation is occurring, though supply still exceeds demand. Carriers are prioritizing network efficiency, equipment utilization, and liquidity protection overgrowth. Private fleets continue to capture share through superior routing control and higher pay, reinforcing competitive pressures on the for-hire sector. ACT Research expects the imbalance between supply and demand to improve gradually through 2026 with meaningful freight and rate recovery not likely until the second half of the year.
DOT Review Finds 44% of Trucking Schools Are Noncompliant: Nearly 44% of the 16,000 truck driving schools in the U.S. may be forced to close if they lose their students after a review by the federal Department of Transportation (DOT) found they may not be complying with government requirements. On December 1, the DOT said that it plans to revoke the certification of nearly 3,000 schools unless they can comply with training requirements in the next 30 days. The targeted schools must notify students that their certification is in jeopardy. Another 4,500 schools are being warned they may face similar action. Schools that lose certification will no longer be able to issue the certificates showing a driver has completed the training that is required to get a license, so students are likely to abandon those schools. Separately, the Department of Homeland Security is auditing trucking firms in California owned by immigrants to verify the status of their drivers and whether they are qualified to hold a commercial driver’s license.
This crackdown on trucking schools and companies is the latest step in the government’s effort to ensure that truck drivers are qualified and eligible to hold a commercial license. This began after a truck driver that Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy says was not authorized to be in the U.S. made an illegal U-turn and caused a crash in Florida that killed three people. The action reins in “illegal and reckless practices that let poorly trained drivers get behind the wheel of semi-trucks and school buses,” Duffy said.
The American Trucking Associations commended the Trump Administration for the actions it is taking. “Training someone to operate an 80,000-pound vehicle is not a weekend hobby. It is a profession built on standards, discipline, and responsibility,” ATA President & CEO Chris Spear said. “The Trump Administration has sent the right message: if you’re running a CDL mill or if you’re issuing certificates to anyone who can fog a mirror, you’re on notice.” ATA has repeatedly called for stronger oversight and accountability to eliminate fraudulent or substandard CDL training.
U.S. Economy in Goods Recession as 2025 Freight Demand Plunges: According to FreightWaves, a prolonged downturn in the movement of physical goods indicates the U.S. economy is in a goods recession. While consumer spending on services remains steady, the flow of goods critical to manufacturing, retail, and industrial sectors has stalled.
In 2018, the freight market was beginning to show signs of strain. By 2019, the industry entered a “trucking blood bath” recession characterized by overcapacity and falling rates that eliminated many smaller carriers. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 initially caused a supply chain freeze, but this was followed by a boom driven by stimulus checks, e-commerce surges, and inventory restocking. During this period, truck driver employment spiked to over 1.6 million.
Starting in March 2022, a “Great Freight Recession” began as inflation rose and consumer spending shifted back to services, causing freight volumes to drop sharply and the start of a gradual decline in driver employment. A potential recovery emerged in the second half of 2024, but was short-lived, as 2025 has seen a severe downturn. Freight demand has fallen to levels not seen since the depths of the pandemic and is currently down about 18% year-over-year. Simultaneously, truck driver employment has reverted to pre-pandemic levels, around 1.523 million, indicating ongoing adjustments but also persistent overcapacity in the industry. Economists estimate that that market could eliminate as many as 600,000 active drivers.
Class 8 Orders Continue to be Depressed: According to Freight Transportation Research (FTR) preliminary North American Class 8 orders for November totaled just 20,200 units, down 17% from October and 44% year over year. To put that in perspective, the 10-year average for the month is 28,910 units and the 12-month total now sits at just 214,797 units.
“So far, improved tariff clarity has not been enough to offset a host of challenges, including weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, elevated capital costs, and so on that continue to keep fleets on the sidelines,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “Fleets are emphasizing cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization overgrowth, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions firm. For truck manufacturers and suppliers, forward visibility remains limited, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight volumes and rates show a sustained recovery.”
FTR noted that the subdued orders continue despite improved clarity around regulations and tariffs. Fleets are continuing to defer replacement and expansion purchases as freight demand remains weak and capacity abundant. The industry forecaster added vocational truck demand was stronger, but still “cautious.” With Class 8 orders down 36% year over year from September through November, the 2026 buying cycle is looking like a dud. The bottleneck to stronger order activity is lack of carrier profitability. Spot rates continue to tread along the bottom, and while supply is coming out of the market, demand in key freight sectors is lagging.
Washington Revokes 700 Improperly Issued CDLs: The Washington State Department of Licensing has revoked 700 commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) after uncovering that they were mistakenly issued to individuals who did not meet federal eligibility requirements. This corrective action follows mounting scrutiny of the state’s licensing system after a fatal truck crash in Florida earlier this year revealed that the driver involved had been wrongly granted a Washington CDL.
For years, Washington’s licensing process allowed noncitizens who were ineligible under federal law to obtain CDLs. Officials now admit that these errors spanned more than seven years, raising serious concerns about oversight and compliance. The revocations are part of a broader effort to restore public trust and ensure that only qualified drivers are permitted to operate heavy commercial vehicles.
Federal regulators and safety advocates have emphasized the gravity of the issue, noting that commercial trucks can weigh up to 80,000 pounds and require specialized training and certification to operate safely. Any lapse in licensing integrity poses significant risks to motorists, pedestrians, and communities across the country.
The incident has sparked calls for reforms in Washington’s licensing system, including stronger verification processes, improved data-sharing with federal agencies, and enhanced accountability measures. While the revocation of 700 CDLs is a step toward correcting past mistakes, the episode underscores the importance of vigilance in protecting public safety.
Trends in Used Equipment Inventory and Values
Sandhills Global’s most recent report shows that the U.S. used heavy-duty truck market continues to contract, with November inventory falling 3.63% month over month and 11.84% year‑over‑year. The steepest declines are in day cab trucks, which dropped nearly 10% from the prior month and more than 22% compared to last year, while sleeper trucks also trended downward but less sharply. Asking values decreased by 1.54% month over month and were essentially flat year over year, suggesting that prices are stabilizing even as supply tightens. Auction values were mixed, reflecting uneven demand across categories. Sandhills notes that dealers face particularly challenging conditions in the day cab segment, and the broader trend points to shrinking inventory and cautious pricing dynamics across the heavy‑duty truck market.
The recent declines in used heavy‑duty truck inventory and values are being driven by a mix of supply chain, economic, and buyer behavior factors. Sandhills Global highlights that ongoing market uncertainty, OEM production adjustments, and shifting buyer demand patterns are central to these trends.
Looking ahead, to 2026, Sandhills Global expects the used heavy‑duty truck market to remain tight in early part of the year, with inventory continuing to trend downward due to OEM production cuts and delayed buyer activity. However, demand is projected to pick up later in 2026 as fleets engage in pre‑buy behavior ahead of stricter emissions regulations set for 2027. This shift is likely to stabilize or even lift values, particularly for day cab and sleeper trucks, as buyers move to secure equipment before regulatory changes take effect.